🔗 Share this article Will the Scottish team at last end their New Zealand curse? New Zealand have made several adjustments to the team that defeated Ireland Autumn Nations Series: Scottish team versus All Blacks Where: Murrayfield Stadium, Edinburgh Date: Saturday, 8 November Kick-off: 3:10 PM GMT The past seemed less complicated. The fourth meeting of Scotland and New Zealand. A heaving Murrayfield, a scoreless tie, winter of 1964. Euphoria at full-time. Fans flooding the field to reflect the home team's momentous achievement. After defeating three home nations, New Zealand had finally been halted in a international match. A contemporary reporter was nearly overcome with excitement. "A game that no-one who saw it will ever forget," he reported breathlessly with considerable hope. "Where Scottish rugby preserved British pride." Leaving the stadium that evening, home supporters would have had optimism about what was to come. Four attempts at beating New Zealand and zero victories, but obvious indications that success might be imminent. A few seasons after, New Zealand beat the Scots. Five years after that, history repeated itself. Three years further on, identical outcome. Another five-year gap and, indeed, you know the rest. Modern Encounters Twenty games since then later. Twenty consecutive New Zealand victories. Across New Zealand and beyond, Auckland to Cardiff - locations have varied but results remain consistent. During his tenure, Scotland's coach has ended losing runs in Paris, Cardiff and Twickenham, but this challenge is different. Over a century of matches. Among rugby's most persistent curses. Team News Over the past seasons the landslide 20, 30 and 40-point wins have reduced to eight points, five points and eight points in recent encounters, but New Zealand consistently prevail. Through their brilliance, their power, their chicanery, they secure victory. We're now at the point of the week where positive expectations that supporters maintained for a Scottish win is probably beginning to fade. Optimism meets historical reality. Key Absences Recent updates revealed that Fagerson was unavailable. To Scottish ambitions it was like a kick in the guts. Fagerson hasn't played since April, but he's exceptional and if available then the long gap without a game would not have been too worrying. During modern rugby early in matches, his endurance stands out. No tighthead played nearly as many minutes in the European championship. Squad Depth They're without Huw Jones but Rory Hutchinson is flying form with Northampton. Fagerson's replacement presents concerns. D'Arcy Rae is an admirable tighthead, his international experience consists of limited game time. And when Rae is finished, there's Elliot Millar-Mills to come on. Millar-Mills is a decent prop, evidence is lacking that he's All Black-beating class. Coaching Choices The coach has made unexpected selections, partly expected, some puzzling. Kyle Steyn's game-management intelligence replaces Duhan van der Merwe's more one-dimensional power. The flanker selection is unconventional, with Darge among substitutes. There's no Andy Onyeama-Christie in the 23. Past Encounters Darcy Graham was a try-scorer in the 31-23 defeat to the All Blacks in 2022 Against Ireland, New Zealand won the opening match of what they hope will be a Grand Slam tour. They started slowly, even when playing against 14 men, but their last-quarter demolition secured victory. Combined with Irish vulnerabilities, offensive struggles, their line-out and their scrum collapsing. Statistical Analysis Despite late-game surges, the last 20 minutes is not where New Zealand typically dominates. In all of their Tests going back three years, they've scored 87 tries in the first half and fewer after halftime. They've scored 39 in the first quarter, 48 in the second, 26 in the third and 34 in the fourth. They come exploding out of the traps. What Scotland Needs Against Scotland in 2022, they struck twice in the initial stages. Establishing early dominance, the game looked done. Scotland recovered majestically to hit them with 23 unanswered points. The clear message is that, metaphorically, Scotland must put the boot on the throat from the start - and keep it there. In recent years, successful opponents have needed to score in the high-20s. Scotland have got into the 20s only occasionally against the All Blacks. Conclusion Perfect execution is required for Scotland. Absolutely everything. If they start butchering chances early on then hopes fade. Disciplinary issues? A high penalty count? Set-piece struggles? The game is lost. With perfect execution? A blistering beginning. Vocal support. Bedlam. Clinical finishing. Russell being Russell. Darcy Graham's brilliance. Fantasy rugby, perhaps. Consistent performance has been elusive from Scotland that would be good enough to beat the All Blacks. If it's in there, now is the moment; 120 years is enough of a wait.