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T respite brought by the ceasefire in Gaza is immense. Across Israel, the liberation of the living hostages has sparked extensive joy. Across Palestinian territories, jubilations are also underway as as many as 2,000 Palestinian detainees start to be released – although distress remains due to uncertainty about which prisoners are returning and where they will be sent. Across northern Gaza, civilians can finally go back to sift through wreckage for the remnants of an estimated 10,000 unaccounted-for individuals.

Truce Development Contrary to Earlier Odds

Only three weeks ago, the probability of a ceasefire seemed unlikely. Yet it has come into force, and on Monday Donald Trump travelled from Jerusalem, where he was applauded in the Knesset, to Sharm el-Sheikh in Egypt. There, he attended a prestigious peace conference of in excess of 20 world leaders, including Sir Keir Starmer. The peace initiative launched at that summit is scheduled to proceed at a conference in the UK. The US president, working alongside international partners, managed to secure this deal come to fruition – despite, not owing to, Israel’s prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

Aspirations for Sovereignty Moderated by Previous Experiences

Expectations that the deal represents the first step toward Palestinian statehood are comprehensible – but, considering previous instances, slightly idealistic. It lacks a transparent trajectory to sovereignty for Palestinians and endangers splitting, for the foreseeable future, Gaza from the West Bank. Additionally the complete destruction this war leaves behind. The lack of any timeframe for Palestinian autonomy in Mr Trump’s plan gives the lie to boastful mentions, in his Knesset speech, to the “epochal beginning” of a “age of abundance”.

The US president was unable to refrain from dividing and personalising the deal in his speech.

In a period of respite – with the hostage release, halt in fighting and renewal of aid – he chose to recast it as a lesson in ethics in which he exclusively reclaimed Israel’s prestige after supposed disloyalty by past US commanders-in-chief Obama and Biden. Notwithstanding the Biden administration a year ago having attempted a similar deal: a cessation of hostilities linked to aid delivery and ultimate negotiations.

Substantive Control Crucial for Sustainable Agreement

A plan that refuses one side substantive control cannot yield authentic resolution. The ceasefire and aid trucks are to be embraced. But this is not currently political progress. Without systems securing Palestinian engagement and command over their own institutions, any deal risks cementing subjugation under the rhetoric of peace.

Relief Imperatives and Rebuilding Obstacles

Gaza’s people crucially depend on relief assistance – and food and medicines must be the first priority. But restoration should not be postponed. Among 60 million tonnes of wreckage, Palestinians need assistance restoring residences, schools, medical centers, religious buildings and other institutions shattered by Israel’s invasion. For Gaza’s provisional leadership to prosper, monetary resources must flow quickly and security gaps be filled.

Similar to a large portion of Donald Trump's resolution initiative, mentions to an international stabilisation force and a suggested “diplomatic committee” are disturbingly unclear.

International Support and Future Prospects

Substantial global backing for the Gaza's governing body, enabling it to take over from Hamas, is probably the most encouraging scenario. The enormous suffering of the previous 24 months means the moral case for a solution to the conflict is arguably more critical than ever. But while the ceasefire, the return of the detainees and pledge by Hamas to “disarm” Gaza should be accepted as favorable developments, Mr Trump’s track record offers minimal cause to trust he will deliver – or feel bound to attempt. Temporary ease does not mean that the likelihood of a Palestinian state has been moved nearer.